DMfirst / Journal
Numbers explainedDMfirst-owned · Edition 066

Avoid the gambler’s fallacy

Believing a loss streak must soon reverse can encourage escalating commitments. A sequence does not create a debt that chance must repay.

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Inside this edition

One topic. Three useful perspectives.

3 sections

01

Understand the idea

Believing a loss streak must soon reverse can encourage escalating commitments. A sequence does not create a debt that chance must repay.

Context
02

Put it into practice

Before acting on a streak, ask whether the events are independent and whether the probabilities actually changed. Keep any preset limits unchanged.

Practical step
03

Know the limits

Increasing a stake to recover earlier losses increases exposure; it does not guarantee recovery.

Important limit

Make the reading useful.

Take a moment to check your understanding. This is a reflection aid, not a certification or account check.

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